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2Q23 Update & Outlook

Interest rates are at 20-yr highs, yet unemployment is at 50-yr lows, core-PCE is near 30-yr highs, and Wall Street (and Fed) economic forecasts continue improving.  What explains the disconnect between these unexpected outcomes and those expected by mainstream economic textbooks? Consensus says: monetary policy works with long & variable lags.  We say: it’s the Fiscal, Stupid!

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