2Q22 Review & Strategy Update

In 1H22 societies, economies & markets around the world were shaken by the actions of unelected policymakers in Russia (Putin-war), China (Xi-lockdown) & the U.S. (Powell-panic). Though all telegraphed, each proved more aggressive & consequential than expected. Regardless, our Key Themes are unchanged (pg-5). In fact, recent events further validate our “2001 Analog” (pg-6).

1Q22 Review & Strategy Update

For the last 5+ years, our Key Themes (& portfolios) have been guided by our “2001 Analog” (pg-2). For the next 5+ years, we expect this analog will hold (U.S. entering long-wave leveraging cycle) but are prepared for elevated volatility in coming quarters (U.S. ending short-wave business cycle).

1Q21 Review & Strategy Update

Headed into 2Q21, we believe cyclically sensitive sectors/regions are due for a breather while Gold stock leadership is set to resume. We remain positive on cyclicals, but recent strength & sentiment appear stretched. Conversely, Gold sentiment is turning increasingly negative just as our fundamental outlook is turning increasingly positive.

2021 Outlook & Strategy

 Like the 9/11 attacks of 2001, the Covid crisis of 2020 was a “large shock” that has catalyzed substantial fiscal expansion. Like the period following the 2001 recession, we believe the U.S. has begun a new multi-year leveraging phase & economic/market trends that dominated the past decade are set to reverse. In coming years, we … Read more

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