For 2020, Key Themes remain guided by our “2001 Analog” while recognizing an important distinction. In the prior period, both fiscal & monetary easing started in 2001, a year after stocks peaked & unemployment bottomed. In the current period, fiscal & monetary policy easing began, respectively, in 2016 & 2019 with stocks at record-highs & …
In recent weeks, a common market narrative has dominated headlines. We wanted to quickly address it and reiterate our 2019 Key Themes. Headline Narrative: “With a China Phase-1 deal imminent, risks to the U.S. economy have dissipated, FED easing is done, and Gold’s run is over.”
We have updated Key Theme #2 from “Implicit Easing Insufficient” to “Explicit Easing Until Dollar Down”. Other Themes remain intact and we expect Theme #1 (“Stagflation Risks Rising”) to become increasingly evident as updated Theme #2 plays out. Click Here for slide deck.
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