We believe Powell will “keep at it”. But we also believe he has misdiagnosed the 1970’s inflation, and his policy prescription may exacerbate the inflation illness. Higher rates are expected to cure inflation, but higher rates may unexpectedly cause inflation.
Our 2021 Key Themes remain intact with an emphasis on Theme #2 Big Turns Take Time. In the past year, the government sector has been the primary drive of total credit growth. In coming years, we believe the private sector is well positioned (current savings up & future real rates down) to fuel credit expansion. … Read more
Headed into 2Q21, we believe cyclically sensitive sectors/regions are due for a breather while Gold stock leadership is set to resume. We remain positive on cyclicals, but recent strength & sentiment appear stretched. Conversely, Gold sentiment is turning increasingly negative just as our fundamental outlook is turning increasingly positive.
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