In 1H22 societies, economies & markets around the world were shaken by the actions of unelected policymakers in Russia (Putin-war), China (Xi-lockdown) & the U.S. (Powell-panic). Though all telegraphed, each proved more aggressive & consequential than expected. Regardless, our Key Themes are unchanged (pg-5). In fact, recent events further validate our “2001 Analog” (pg-6).
Our 2021 Key Themes remain intact with an emphasis on Theme #2 Big Turns Take Time. In the past year, the government sector has been the primary drive of total credit growth. In coming years, we believe the private sector is well positioned (current savings up & future real rates down) to fuel credit expansion. … Read more
Like the 9/11 attacks of 2001, the Covid crisis of 2020 was a “large shock” that has catalyzed substantial fiscal expansion. Like the period following the 2001 recession, we believe the U.S. has begun a new multi-year leveraging phase & economic/market trends that dominated the past decade are set to reverse. In coming years, we … Read more