3Q21 Review & Strategy Update
We maintain our 2021 Key Themes & highlight Theme #1 “Early-Then, Late-Now”, which references our “2001 Analog”. In the prior period (Then), policy tightened Early (focus on price stability over maximum employment). In the current …
2Q21 Review & Strategy Update
Our 2021 Key Themes remain intact with an emphasis on Theme #2 Big Turns Take Time. In the past year, the government sector has been the primary drive of total credit growth. In coming years, …
1Q21 Review & Strategy Update
Headed into 2Q21, we believe cyclically sensitive sectors/regions are due for a breather while Gold stock leadership is set to resume. We remain positive on cyclicals, but recent strength & sentiment appear stretched. Conversely, Gold …
2021 Outlook & Strategy
Like the 9/11 attacks of 2001, the Covid crisis of 2020 was a “large shock” that has catalyzed substantial fiscal expansion. Like the period following the 2001 recession, we believe the U.S. has begun a …
3Q20 Review & Strategy Update
In 2Q, unprecedented fiscal relief prevented the U.S. from spiraling into a depression. In 3Q, that support faded & the economic bounce stalled. In 4Q, without additional fiscal action, the economy is at-risk of turning …
2Q20 Review & Strategy Update
In coming weeks, we believe U.S risk-assets could move back toward March lows while Gold could breakout to all-time highs. The 2Q economic bounce (aided by +$3T fiscal relief) is running out of steam and, …
1Q20 Review & Strategy Update
During the March sell-off, we added to our Gold positions, taking our allocations to their maximum allowable levels. Since early 2016, when we first started adding Gold stocks to our Dividend strategy, GDM is now …
Market Update 2020 Outlook
For 2020, Key Themes remain guided by our “2001 Analog” while recognizing an important distinction. In the prior period, both fiscal & monetary easing started in 2001, a year after stocks peaked & unemployment bottomed. …
Market Update November 2019
In recent weeks, a common market narrative has dominated headlines. We wanted to quickly address it and reiterate our 2019 Key Themes. Headline Narrative: “With a China Phase-1 deal imminent, risks to the U.S. economy …
Market Update October 2019
We have updated Key Theme #2 from “Implicit Easing Insufficient” to “Explicit Easing Until Dollar Down”. Other Themes remain intact and we expect Theme #1 (“Stagflation Risks Rising”) to become increasingly evident as updated Theme …