2023 Outlook & Strategy Update
We believe Powell will “keep at it”. But we also believe he has misdiagnosed the 1970’s inflation, and his policy prescription may exacerbate the inflation illness. Higher rates are expected to cure inflation, but higher rates may unexpectedly cause …
2Q22 Review & Strategy Update
In 1H22 societies, economies & markets around the world were shaken by the actions of unelected policymakers in Russia (Putin-war), China (Xi-lockdown) & the U.S. (Powell-panic). Though all telegraphed, each proved more aggressive & consequential …
1Q22 Review & Strategy Update
For the last 5+ years, our Key Themes (& portfolios) have been guided by our “2001 Analog” (pg-2). For the next 5+ years, we expect this analog will hold (U.S. entering long-wave leveraging cycle) but …
2022 Update & Outlook
We have two new Key Themes for 2022; #1 Year of Rebalance, #2 Feels like 2018, May be 2000. Our “2001 Analog” remains intact. Pre-Covid, economic & market trends expected by this analog were emerging …
3Q21 Review & Strategy Update
We maintain our 2021 Key Themes & highlight Theme #1 “Early-Then, Late-Now”, which references our “2001 Analog”. In the prior period (Then), policy tightened Early (focus on price stability over maximum employment). In the current …
2Q21 Review & Strategy Update
Our 2021 Key Themes remain intact with an emphasis on Theme #2 Big Turns Take Time. In the past year, the government sector has been the primary drive of total credit growth. In coming years, …
1Q21 Review & Strategy Update
Headed into 2Q21, we believe cyclically sensitive sectors/regions are due for a breather while Gold stock leadership is set to resume. We remain positive on cyclicals, but recent strength & sentiment appear stretched. Conversely, Gold …
2021 Outlook & Strategy
Like the 9/11 attacks of 2001, the Covid crisis of 2020 was a “large shock” that has catalyzed substantial fiscal expansion. Like the period following the 2001 recession, we believe the U.S. has begun a …
3Q20 Review & Strategy Update
In 2Q, unprecedented fiscal relief prevented the U.S. from spiraling into a depression. In 3Q, that support faded & the economic bounce stalled. In 4Q, without additional fiscal action, the economy is at-risk of turning …
2Q20 Review & Strategy Update
In coming weeks, we believe U.S risk-assets could move back toward March lows while Gold could breakout to all-time highs. The 2Q economic bounce (aided by +$3T fiscal relief) is running out of steam and, …
1Q20 Review & Strategy Update
During the March sell-off, we added to our Gold positions, taking our allocations to their maximum allowable levels. Since early 2016, when we first started adding Gold stocks to our Dividend strategy, GDM is now …
Market Update 2020 Outlook
For 2020, Key Themes remain guided by our “2001 Analog” while recognizing an important distinction. In the prior period, both fiscal & monetary easing started in 2001, a year after stocks peaked & unemployment bottomed. …
Market Update November 2019
In recent weeks, a common market narrative has dominated headlines. We wanted to quickly address it and reiterate our 2019 Key Themes. Headline Narrative: “With a China Phase-1 deal imminent, risks to the U.S. economy …
Market Update October 2019
We have updated Key Theme #2 from “Implicit Easing Insufficient” to “Explicit Easing Until Dollar Down”. Other Themes remain intact and we expect Theme #1 (“Stagflation Risks Rising”) to become increasingly evident as updated Theme …
