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Advisor Market Updates

A Journey to Milan: Lessons from the Past for Today’s Economy

A Journey to Milan: Lessons from the Past for Today’s Economy Jim Nelson, CFA Managing Member, Portfolio Manager This week, I had the pleasure of ...
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Inflation Slowdown in Latest CPI Release: A Temporary Reprieve Amid Looming Risks

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) release has brought some much-needed respite, indicating a slowdown in inflation. Yet, underlying economic conditions suggest that this reprieve ...
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Keeping an Eye on China Growth & Policy Response

China just released a GDP growth number of 4.7% y/y, falling short of consensus growth expectations of 5.1%. Recent IMF economic reports indicate that China’s ...
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2Q23 Update & Outlook

Interest rates are at 20-yr highs, yet unemployment is at 50-yr lows, core-PCE is near 30-yr highs, and Wall Street (and Fed) economic forecasts continue ...
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2023 Outlook & Strategy Update

We believe Powell will “keep at it”. But we also believe he has misdiagnosed the 1970’s inflation, and his policy prescription may exacerbate the inflation ...
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2Q22 Review & Strategy Update

In 1H22 societies, economies & markets around the world were shaken by the actions of unelected policymakers in Russia (Putin-war), China (Xi-lockdown) & the U.S. ...
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1Q22 Review & Strategy Update

For the last 5+ years, our Key Themes (& portfolios) have been guided by our “2001 Analog” (pg-2). For the next 5+ years, we expect ...
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2022 Update & Outlook

We have two new Key Themes for 2022; #1 Year of Rebalance, #2 Feels like 2018, May be 2000. Our “2001 Analog” remains intact. Pre-Covid, ...
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3Q21 Review & Strategy Update

We maintain our 2021 Key Themes & highlight Theme #1 “Early-Then, Late-Now”, which references our “2001 Analog”. In the prior period (Then), policy tightened Early ...
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2Q21 Review & Strategy Update

Our 2021 Key Themes remain intact with an emphasis on Theme #2 Big Turns Take Time. In the past year, the government sector has been ...
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1Q21 Review & Strategy Update

Headed into 2Q21, we believe cyclically sensitive sectors/regions are due for a breather while Gold stock leadership is set to resume. We remain positive on ...
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2021 Outlook & Strategy

 Like the 9/11 attacks of 2001, the Covid crisis of 2020 was a “large shock” that has catalyzed substantial fiscal expansion. Like the period following ...
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3Q20 Review & Strategy Update

In 2Q, unprecedented fiscal relief prevented the U.S. from spiraling into a depression. In 3Q, that support faded & the economic bounce stalled. In 4Q, ...
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2Q20 Review & Strategy Update

In coming weeks, we believe U.S risk-assets could move back toward March lows while Gold could breakout to all-time highs. The 2Q economic bounce (aided ...
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1Q20 Review & Strategy Update

During the March sell-off, we added to our Gold positions, taking our allocations to their maximum allowable levels. Since early 2016, when we first started ...
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Market Update 2020 Outlook

For 2020, Key Themes remain guided by our “2001 Analog” while recognizing an important distinction. In the prior period, both fiscal & monetary easing started ...
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Market Update November 2019

In recent weeks, a common market narrative has dominated headlines. We wanted to quickly address it and reiterate our 2019 Key Themes. Headline Narrative: “With ...
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Market Update October 2019

We have updated Key Theme #2 from “Implicit Easing Insufficient” to “Explicit Easing Until Dollar Down”. Other Themes remain intact and we expect Theme #1 ...
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